Lets wonder if the writer strike is potentially the best thing to happen
to advertising in a long time. Why's that? Well, because it may bring an end
to the single most influential and monumental force in advertising each
calendar year. No, it’s not Cannes, the Superbowl or the Oprah gifts
episode. It’s the Upfronts.
In one week, the Upfronts dictate when and where the bulk of advertising budget for most big brands will be spent for
the following year. In that one week, amidst grand pageantry most of the biggest brands in North America will allot a large chunk (still up to 80% for some) of their marketing budget to airtime on one of the mainline
broadcast networks. This entrenches more
:30 spots for another year, and more importantly removes money from the table
that could otherwise be spent on other forms of marketing. If not spent, at lea'st considered. It simply eliminate any reasonable chance of being nimble or solution centric, rather than "fill some airtime centric."
Consider this - what if the biggest barrier to agencies
thinking differently, evolving beyond :30 reliance, moving to more
integrated ideas, and more generous ideas isn’t a creative challenge, a client problem or an
organizational issue. It’s really a
budgeting issue.
Sure there has been a slow erosion of TV budgets in the overall
picture relative to growth in other disciplines as overall marketing budgets
grow, but the fact is gross expenditure in broadcast is still growing even as
audiences also slowly erode. At a macro level, budget increases in other disciplines remain slow incremental changes and broadcast media purchase remains the
largest line item in most brand’s budgets. Not without reason it must be acknowledged as it remains an effective way to reach large audiences and moving picture with sound is a great way to tell stories. But budgeting reamins primarily focused around purchasing :60, :30 or :15 units of airtime and has real evaluation been given to the overall marketing mix, or are budgets made out of habit?
In the financial markets if you have one investment with a steady average growth rate but another has a marginally increasing above average rate of growth, one tends, fairly quickly to shift moneys into the faster growing investment. But, financial markets are liquid. You can purchase any day, hour or second of the week.
Advertising markets are illiquid due to the annualized cycle of the Upfronts. Now I'm not part of the rhetoric that the :30 spot is dead, broad sweeping statements that one should spend less or more on TV or another medium are foolish - when money should be spent depends on the brand and it's objectives/problems/opportunities. Nonetheless, we could use a bit more liquidity in advertising markets. With creative development lead times it will never be, not should it be, the liquidity of capital markets, but the ability to review a marketing mix like a portfolio and shift based upon return and growth rather than necessity and heated auction mentality would be a good thing.
Jeff Zucker, president of NBC Universal yesterday told the
New York Times that this
year they simply might not have anything to show at the Upfronts due to the
writers strike. Therefore the Upfronts won’t
happen. And in his mind, once they go
away, they won’t come back.
If the upfronts go away and networks switch to a cease “TV
seasons” and move to the expected perpetual year round schedule of new shows
and renewals, that potential will allow for more flexible budgets and the
ability of brands to move moneys in and out of TV as necessary and into mediums
in a more “just in time” type model as markets evolve and opportunities
arise. A TV buy will become an ongoing activity rather than a quick market frenzy. In a way another medium is already following this model, it's called the internet. Though good content remains sparse Clark and Michael remains on the best sitcoms in a long while.
This is where it gets exciting for agencies. Those who have the ability within their walls
to shift brands and projects through different disciplines as opportunities arise
throughout the calendar year, and move without bias of who gets the revenue,
the brand guardian role steps up to a new level. Those agencies that have a special forces
type of central hub of folks (mostly account and planner types) who can think
and work across all disciplines will become the new rock stars for their lack
of discipline bias thinking and instead brand/consumer biased thinking and an ability to corral the experts from the necessary
disciplines to work on assignments. At a time when the folks at Proctor and Gamble and moving to a one brand, one agency, all disciplines approach it all comes together. As media fragmentation furthers, brand centralization when it comes to stewardship becomes essential. You can only have so many cooks in the kitchen.
But make no bones about it, TV will remain a force. Don't buy into all the death of the thirty second spot rhetoric. Just like I hope you didn't buy into the death of newspaper rhetoric in the 30's (and 70's and 90's) and death of radio rhetoric in the 50's. Printed word, audio stories and moving picture with sound will continue to be the dominant ways our society/brands tell their stories. But the purchasing, delivery and format mechanisms most certainly will change. But for the better if you ask me.